2011 Betfred Cesarewitch Preview
Ermyn Lodge to turn tables on Veiled?
In fairness, there are some reasonable trends for the Cesarewitch, so let’s call on them in order to whittle down the field, prior to getting stuck into a bit of good old fashioned form analysis.
First up then, and perhaps bizarrely given the trip, Cesarewitch winners tend to come from one side of the draw. Indeed, going all the way back to 1993, there have only been three winners drawn in the top half, so I’m happy enough to ‘cleft the field in twain’ and remove all those drawn 17 or higher.
Those seemingly irrevocably hamstrung by the draw include the fancied Veiled (trap 22), Tuscan Gold (17), Keys (22), Cosimo de Medici (33), Kazbow (35 of 34 – they give the reserves stall numbers as well!), and Rainforest Magic (29).
In fact, to put it another way, the only one of the top seven in the betting to be drawn low is Sentry Duty in trap one. Is it too obvious just to hang my hat on him and draw stumps on the whole thing?! Hmm.
Careless? Foolish? Perhaps, but there’s 32 of ‘em and we need to make that more manageable somehow!
OK, now what?
Fourteen of the last eighteen winners finished in the first four last time out. Recent form then is a pretty decent barometer of winning chance. Even 50/1 winner Caracciola was fourth on his previous start (and had also finished 2nd in the previous year’s Ces, but we’ll come back to that!).
Of the low drawn runners, that then strikes a line through Sentry Duty (bugger!), amongst eleven others, including top weight Mount Athos.
Or, to turn things around once more, leaves us with a shortlist of… FIVE!
The quintet is Ermyn Lodge, Beyond, Colour Vision, Becausewecan and Valid Reason.
This sturdy test of stamina and field size lends itself to a more experienced animal. It’s no surprise then that twelve of the last sixteen, going back to Old Red in 1995, were aged five or older.
That deals a blow to the hopes of Beyond (4yo), Colour Vision (3yo), and Valid Reason (4yo).
It also leaves us with TWO: Ermyn Lodge and Becausewecan.
They’ve won the Cesarewitch from all over the weights and ratings ranges, so no clues especially there.
Becausewecan ran just twelve days ago, a shortish break that no horse has managed in the last fourteen years, from 61 to attempt it. On the other hand, Ermyn Lodge – who returns from a 63 day break – is attempting to replicate the feat of Caracciola, Landing Light, and Heros Fatal, the three winners who had more than 60 days off (from a relatively small sample of 71 runners).
Ermyn Lodge is the horse here, based on all trends, and his second to Veiled in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting puts him right in the mix on form. They’ve smashed into him in the betting today, and it’s not hard to see why.
With so many of the other fancied runners seemingly badly drawn, he must have a very good chance under excellent pilot, Ian Mongan.
He’s a best priced 20/1 with Skybet, or if you want five places – not a bad idea in a race like this! – 18/1 with PaddyPower. 16/1 is the best elsewhere with bet365, totesport (prices wedded to sponsors, Betfred now), bluesquare and a few others.
Ermyn Lodge has been in the first five in fourteen of his last eighteen starts, and looks rock solid for another big run. If you open a new account with Paddy Power, they’ll match your first bet up to £50 as well, so click the link below and get on!
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