Never Retreat wins the 2011 First Lady Stakes

A field of 12 older fillies and mares went 1 mile on the turf in the $400,000 First Lady Stakes (G1). Note that unlike last year, this is not a Breeders' Cup Challenge race for the Filly and Mare Turf division. Wasted Tears set fractions of 23.59, 46.80, and 1:10.61 while 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Absinthe Minded stalking her in second. Wasted Tears held the lead to mid-stretch through 7/8 in 1:22.29, as 4-1 second choice Never Retreat was unleashing her rally from 4th. Never Retreat finished 1 1/2 lengths in front of Together in 1:34.08 over the firm course. It was just a nose back to 7-2 favorite Daveron third.

Dullahan in the winner's circle

Winning trainer Dale Romans said, "This is a special horse, and we've known it all along. We felt like he was a Grade 1-caliber racehorse. He showed it today. When you can overcome adversity and win a Grade 1, you're a really good horse. I thought he'd be laying a little closer to the pace. He closed more ground than I expected. We've really had high hopes for this horse. He's trained like a top horse all along. His half-brother (Mine That Bird) won the (2009 Kentucky) Derby."

Dullahan wins the 2011 Dixiana Breeders' Futurity

The $400,000 Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (G1) is the major local prep and "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, with a field of 13 two-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack. Musical Flair led the field around the clubhouse turn and down the backstretch through fractions of 22.67 and 46.15 before 3-1 second choice Majestic City took over on the far turn, through 3/4 in 1:11.03. Majestic City opened up by 2 1/2 lengths at the 1/8 pole but 18-1 Dullahan, 9th early, closed late to get up by 3/4 length in 1:43.12. It was another length back to Optimizer third, while 5-2 favorite Shared Property was 6th.

2011 FallStars Saturday at Keeneland

Winning trainer Christophe Clement said, "I felt many sensations over the last 1/16 mile. I'm delighted. It was a different kind of a race today. Ramon (Dominguez) was more aggressive; he was much closer to the pace than usual. I didn't think he was going to get there at the 1/4 pole. Yet again he proved me wrong, and he got there. He's a top-class horse, firm turf, mile to 1 1/4. The mile today was a bit quick as you saw for him. He was a bit unlucky this year. I've been running him on softer ground. There's nothing I can do; the program is made that way, and I cannot control the weather."

2011 FallStars Saturday at Keeneland

Keeneland's prestigious fall meet kicks off with FallStars Weekend, featuring the major local preps for the Breeders' Cup World Championships, 6 of which are part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" program, including the Darley Alcibiades and Phoenix Stakes on Friday and the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes on Sunday.
The $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) was the highlight of Saturday's card, with a field of 6 older horses going 1 mile on the turf looking for automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Mile. Sidney's Candy was loose on the lead early through fractions of 23.63, 47.08, and 1:10.91 while stalked by Get Stormy. Into the stretch, Get Stormy gained a short lead but 9-5 favorite Gio Ponti, 4th early, came through between horses to win by 1/2 a length in 1:34.17 over the firm course. It was another length back to pacesetter Sidney's Candy third.

2011 Betfred Cesarewitch Preview

2011 Betfred Cesarewitch Preview

Ermyn Lodge to turn tables on Veiled?

Just the 34 runners line up for the 2011 Betfred Cesarewitch over two and a quarter miles at Newmarket tomorrow, so it should be easy enough to find the winner..!
In fairness, there are some reasonable trends for the Cesarewitch, so let’s call on them in order to whittle down the field, prior to getting stuck into a bit of good old fashioned form analysis.
First up then, and perhaps bizarrely given the trip, Cesarewitch winners tend to come from one side of the draw. Indeed, going all the way back to 1993, there have only been three winners drawn in the top half, so I’m happy enough to ‘cleft the field in twain’ and remove all those drawn 17 or higher.
Those seemingly irrevocably hamstrung by the draw include the fancied Veiled (trap 22), Tuscan Gold (17), Keys (22), Cosimo de Medici (33), Kazbow (35 of 34 – they give the reserves stall numbers as well!), and Rainforest Magic (29).
In fact, to put it another way, the only one of the top seven in the betting to be drawn low is Sentry Duty in trap one. Is it too obvious just to hang my hat on him and draw stumps on the whole thing?! Hmm.
Careless? Foolish? Perhaps, but there’s 32 of ‘em and we need to make that more manageable somehow!
OK, now what?
Fourteen of the last eighteen winners finished in the first four last time out. Recent form then is a pretty decent barometer of winning chance. Even 50/1 winner Caracciola was fourth on his previous start (and had also finished 2nd in the previous year’s Ces, but we’ll come back to that!).
Of the low drawn runners, that then strikes a line through Sentry Duty (bugger!), amongst eleven others, including top weight Mount Athos.
Or, to turn things around once more, leaves us with a shortlist of… FIVE!
The quintet is Ermyn Lodge, Beyond, Colour Vision, Becausewecan and Valid Reason.
This sturdy test of stamina and field size lends itself to a more experienced animal. It’s no surprise then that twelve of the last sixteen, going back to Old Red in 1995, were aged five or older.
That deals a blow to the hopes of Beyond (4yo), Colour Vision (3yo), and Valid Reason (4yo).
It also leaves us with TWO: Ermyn Lodge and Becausewecan.
They’ve won the Cesarewitch from all over the weights and ratings ranges, so no clues especially there.
Becausewecan ran just twelve days ago, a shortish break that no horse has managed in the last fourteen years, from 61 to attempt it. On the other hand, Ermyn Lodge – who returns from a 63 day break – is attempting to replicate the feat of Caracciola, Landing Light, and Heros Fatal, the three winners who had more than 60 days off (from a relatively small sample of 71 runners).
Ermyn Lodge is the horse here, based on all trends, and his second to Veiled in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting puts him right in the mix on form. They’ve smashed into him in the betting today, and it’s not hard to see why.
With so many of the other fancied runners seemingly badly drawn, he must have a very good chance under excellent pilot, Ian Mongan.
He’s a best priced 20/1 with Skybet, or if you want five places – not a bad idea in a race like this! – 18/1 with PaddyPower. 16/1 is the best elsewhere with bet365, totesport (prices wedded to sponsors, Betfred now), bluesquare and a few others.
Ermyn Lodge has been in the first five in fourteen of his last eighteen starts, and looks rock solid for another big run. If you open a new account with Paddy Power, they’ll match your first bet up to £50 as well, so click the link below and get on! 

TV Trends – Sat 8th Oct

The Betfred Cesarewitch takes centre stage this Saturday, but did you know 70% of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or older? This trend whittles the 36 runner field down to 18! Andy Newton wades through all eight LIVE C4 races this weekend.